March Payrolls Preview: Are The "Strong Jobs" Lies Finally Over

The BLS is expected to release a surprisingly ugly print, which could mean a recession is imminent.

We have been warning our readers about this for months.

The data from the BLS are simply too good to true

This week, the entire house of cards came crashing down due to a terrible JOLTS report (which printed below all estimates), followed by a horrible ADP and ending with

Today's catastrophic first claims

Last night, we specifically warned

This is what would happen

(which revised all recent data sharply upwards, making fun of the little credibility that the BLS still had...

And more importantly, the revision revealed that this was the 9th consecutive week that initial claims were above 200k after having been below that figure for all but one of 2023's weeks. This is the "data" that the Federal Reserve relied on to determine whether and by how much to raise interest rates.