The "trilogy of recovery" in the domestic civil aviation market: in early January next year, it will first recover to 70% of the flight volume before the epidemic

Market management at the Civil Aviation Administration has resumed normalized assessments of the implementation rate for domestic passenger scheduled flights plans. It no longer exempts flight cancellations due to the effects of the epidemic. The surging news reporter analyzed the data from the Civil Aviation Administration and found that the average daily passenger flight volume has increased to over 3,000 flights since December 2.

Shao Bingyan, The Paper reporter

Three stages will be required to recover the domestic air transport market.

The Paper was informed by insiders at the airline that on December 16th, Civil Aviation Administration published the "Work Plan to the Safe and Orderly Return of the Air Transport Market" (hereinafter the "Work Plan") For the phased recovery, the domestic air transport market has established a timetable. Based on 70% of daily passenger flight volume for 2019, the first phase will run from now to January 6, 2023. The second phase will continue until January 6, 2023. The recovery will be 88% of the average daily passenger flights in 2019 on January 31, 2023. The industry will experience a stable recovery from the third stage through March 25, 2023.

The civil aviation market is now in the fast lane for recovery, thanks to the constant optimization and adjustment of epidemi prevention policies, and the arrival of Spring Festival travel season.

The Civil Aviation Administration has created a three-stage recovery plan for domestic air transport. This will ensure that civil aviation can safely and efficiently meet the needs of the majority of people after implementation of optimization measures for epidemic prevention, control and travel during the Spring Festival travel seasons.

China Southern Airlines (600029.SH), reported 7.75 Yuan, an increase of 0.91%; Air China (601111.SH), reported 11.66 Yuan, an increase of 0.69%; and %; HNA Holdings (601111.SH), reported 1.91 Yuan, an increase in 2.69%; Spring Airlines (5601021.SH); reported 1.91 Yuan, down 2.69%; Spring Airlines (5601021.SH); reported 6.79 yuan; up 1.29%; Juneyuan; 002928.Z) reported 13.81, up 1.54%; 0029282828.

Shanghai Airport (600009.SH), reported 60.4 Yuan, an increase of 1.16%; Baiyun Airport (660004.SH), reported 16.18 Yuan, an increase of 1.44%; Shenzhen Airport (0000089.SZ), reported 7.89 Yuan, an increase in 1.02%.

Hainan Airport (605515.SH), reported 4.96 yuan (down 0.2%); Xiamen Airport (6600897.SH), reported 17 yuan (down 0.47%).

The "Work Plan" directs airlines to continue flying in the three stages of this season.

The first phase, which runs from now to January 6, 2023, shall have a maximum daily flight volume of 11,280. Domestic passenger flights will not exceed 9,280.

To ensure that all transport airlines have sufficient time to conduct supplementary training for unqualified personnel, and to lead flights on routes, the restoration is calculated at 70% of the average daily passenger flow volume in 2019.

The second phase, January 7, 2023 to February 31, 2023, shall have a maximum daily flight volume of 13,667. Domestic passenger flights will not exceed 11,667.

To mitigate the risk of a decline in pilot proficiency, restoration is based upon 88% of daily passenger flight volume in 2019.

The third stage (February 1, 2023 - March 25, 2023) is identical to the second stage and is a period of stable recovery for the industry.

The "Work Plan" is a set of principles that emphasizes safety and order. According to the plan, if we do a good job in assessing operational support capabilities and dynamic monitoring the epidemic situation, then we will strengthen macrocontrol and policy guidance. We will insist on making small steps while still maintaining stability. Keep going.

To ensure safe and orderly resume of flight operations, it is important to always remember safety during the recovery process.

The principle of "Work Plan" also mentions that it must fully adapt to the needs and wants of the masses following the implementation of optimized measures for epidemic control and prevention, particularly during the Spring Festival travel season.

It is important to make every effort for smooth traffic (including passenger-to–cargo flights) to ensure stability in the supply chain of air cargo, particularly to transport medical and drug materials during an epidemic.

The "Work Plan" refers to dynamic monitoring of security recovery situations.

Regional administrations should monitor the safety of airlines and control flight recovery speed in their respective jurisdictions. Effective measures should be taken to raise operating restrictions.

The Civil Aviation Administration's relevant departments and bureaus should provide guidance and support to the Administration for safe operation, control of epidemics and recovery.

The Civil Aviation Administration's market management unit resumed normalized assessments of domestic passenger scheduled flights plans. It no longer exempts cancellations due to the effects of the epidemic.

The "Work Program", however, also mentions the need for improved air transport price management.

In accordance with international bilateral arrangements, the Civil Aviation Administration's freight rate management department shall comply with relevant national price laws, regulations, and applicable regulations such as "Civil Aviation Domestic Transport Market Price Behavior Rules", and "International Air Transport Price Management Regulations". It will also cooperate with the market supervisor department to improve the supervision of domestic and foreign airlines. Monitoring and inspecting unfair competition in transport prices. Maintaining normal price order within the air transportation marketplace. Protecting the legitimate rights of operators and consumers.

It is believed that the Civil Aviation Administration issued on December 16 a notice on "Administrative Steps for the Resumption Of Operations of Aircrew after Novel Coronavirus Infection (Provisional")" (hereinafter the "Administrative Actions").

"Administrative measures" stated that all staff are exempted from the requirement to have regular nucleic acid testing.

According to flight requirements, airlines can arrange for antigen and nucleic acid testing of flight crew members.

Li Hanming, a civil aviation insider, explained to The Paper that the management system allows each airline company to decide whether or not to include the new crown infection in its pre-flight medical examination for pilots and staff.

Another industry insider stated that the publication of the "Administrative Measures” is also a management step in line with the social aspects. Currently, nucleic acids testing is not necessary in most cases. Passenger do not need negative nucleic Acid test certificates for flying. Regular testing does not have any real significance.

It can also prevent a lot of cancellations and minimize the impact on passenger travel.

The recent optimization of favorable travel policies has led to a significant increase in confidence in the aviation market. Numerous airlines including China Eastern Airlines and Juneyao Airlines have stated repeatedly that domestic passenger traffic is increasing and they plan to increase their capacity investment.

According to the flight steward on December 15, there were 7,594 passenger flights by civil aviation in the country. This is 7.9% less than in 2021. The number returned to 53.6% in 2019, which was an increase of 53% over the previous week. And the flight operation rate was 51.4%.

The number of domestic flights was 7,350. This figure is up to 64.1% in 2019.

The volume of domestic passenger flights has been steadily increasing since December last year.

The surging news reporter's analysis of flight and Changzhun civil Aviation Kanban data shows that since December 2, flight volume has fallen and rebounded. In fact, the average daily passenger flight volume has returned above 3,000 flights.

The number of flights grew to over 4,000 on the 7th. The number of flights surpassed 5,000 for only the second time in two months on the 9th. The number of flights surpassed 7,000 on the 11th, 12th and 14th.