China’s challenges and their global risks

For two decades China’s economy – second in size only…

Opec oil output cut brings relief to Saudi Arabia

Opec’s market moving deal to cut output by 1.2m barrels…

This deal is the beginning of the end for Opec

The deal agreed by Opec members this week will come…

Carstens quits Mexican central bank to head BIS

Agustín Carstens, the widely respected governor of the Bank of…

China’s brutally pragmatic response to a shifting world order

China prefers to deal with the devil it knows. Beijing…

China tightens gold import quotas to ease dollar outflow

China has curbed gold imports in the wake of government…



United States
What’s up with the “term premium”?

What’s up with the “term premium”?

If you could know exactly where short-term interest rates will be in the future, it would be easy to determine whether longer-term bonds offer attractive yields today. But that’s not the world we live in. Investors have to live with…

Carstens quits Mexican central bank to head BIS

Agustín Carstens, the widely respected governor of the Bank of Mexico, is quitting in July to head the Bank for International Settlements in a big blow to the country as it prepares for economic turbulence when Donald Trump becomes US…

Brazil central bank cuts rates 25bps

Brazil’s central bank cut its benchmark Selic by 25 basis points on Wednesday evening, deciding against a sharper reduction in spite of an economy that is still deep in recession. In a longer than usual statement, the central bank’s monetary…

US manufacturing data points to solid gains in November

US manufacturing growth gathered steam in November, according to data released on Thursday, improving over last month’s readings and beating analysts’ forecasts in the latest sign the world’s largest economy is strengthening at the end of 2016. The ISM manufacturing…

US Midwest factory activity shows robust growth in November

Manufacturing activity growt in the US midwest soared past analysts’ expectations in November, rebounding from a disappointing October to reach its highest point since January 2015. The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago’s purchasing manager’s index, a key economic indicator, rose to…

US 10-year treasury yields enjoy biggest monthly jump since 2009

Trumped up. US 10-year treasury yields have enjoyed their biggest climb since the depths of the financial crisis this month, as the prospect of bumper spending and radical tax cuts under the president-elect Trump have led to soaring inflation expectations.…

Indian

India: Narendra Modi’s bonfire of the rupees

India, at the start of this year, began requiring retailers that received more than Rs200,000 ($3,000) in cash from a customer to report details of the sale — and the buyer’s taxpayer identification number — to tax officials. The impact…

Indian annual inflation falls to 14-month low

India’s annual inflation rate fell to its lowest level since August 2015 last month, driven lower by falling food prices in Asia’s second largest economy. Year on year consumer prices grew by 4.2 per cent in October, slipping from September’s…

Modi seeks to rally public behind India’s currency crackdown

Indian prime minister Narendra Modi sought on Monday to rally public support for his draconian decision to scrap most of the country’s existing banknotes, while the government urged citizens struggling to obtain cash not to panic. Speaking at large political…

My quest for cash in Modi’s India

I had just slapped a Rs500 note on the counter of a south Indian snack stand when my phone rang. “Are you watching Modi’s speech on television,” my colleague said excitedly. “I think he’s scrapping all Rs500 and Rs1,000 notes.”…

India’s cash chaos sparks growing backlash

Indians’ desperate quest for cash intensified at the weekend, as public resentment grew at New Delhi’s chaotic effort to replace more than $220bn in cash with new currency notes in a matter of weeks. Crowds queueing at India’s banks grew…

India scraps high-value banknotes in black economy clampdown

India unexpectedly scrapped all larger-denomination banknotes overnight in what New Delhi said was a move to stop counterfeiting and clamp down on the black economy. Prime Minister Narendra Modi said 500 and 1,000 rupee notes — worth around $7.50 and…

Europe

Weak euro helps eurozone manufacturers enjoy best month since 2014

Political risk? What political risk? Factories in the eurozone enjoyed their best month since the start of 2014 in November, supported by a weakening currency and strong performances in its northern economies, according to an influential business survey of the…

Spanish manufacturing beats forecasts – IHS Markit

Spanish manufacturers reported a third successive month of improvement in November, with a closely-watched business index rising to its highest level since January. Markit’s purchasing managers’ survey for the sector came in at 54.5, beating economist forecasts for the second…

A No vote in the Italian referendum will derail essential reforms

A single number, hourly labour productivity, explains the sorry state of the Italian economy. On a scale set equal to 100 in 1995, 20 years later the index has risen to 140 in the US, 130 in Germany, France and…

Eurozone unemployment falls below 10% – analysts react

A milestone. Unemployment in the eurozone has fallen into the single digits for the first time since the bloc’s debt crisis erupted in 2010. Now at 9.8 per cent, the jobless rate was deemed to have dropped below 10 per…

Eurozone unemployment rate below 10% for first time in 7 years

It has taken seven years marked by financial crisis, sluggish growth and bouts of recession — but the eurozone’s unemployment rate has finally returned to single-digit levels. Underlining the region’s fragile return to economic health, Eurostat, the European Commission’s statistics…

For China, Europe is the new Africa

China is known for its patience. A century is but a page in the book of its history. We Europeans are much more edgy. First we lamented that our manufacturing jobs were stolen by China. Then we worried about the…

Middle Eastern

Opec oil output cut brings relief to Saudi Arabia

Opec’s market moving deal to cut output by 1.2m barrels a day has come as a relief to Saudi Arabia, the main force behind the accord, as Riyadh struggles to break out of a deep fiscal deficit. The assumption in…

This deal is the beginning of the end for Opec

The deal agreed by Opec members this week will come to symbolise the passing of one of the world’s most powerful cartels. After 50 years in control of the oil price, Opec has submitted to the economic power of a…

Egypt and the IMF: a good start, but only a start

Egypt’s agreement with the IMF on a $12bn, three-year loan will help finance Egypt’s import needs while cushioning the effects of the reduction in fuel subsidies and the floating of the pound, prior actions that had been demanded by the…

Saudi Arabia set to reveal depth of oil reserves

Saudi Arabia is set to lift the lid on one of the global energy industry’s most closely guarded secrets as it prepares to sell shares in Saudi Aramco: how much crude lies beneath the desert kingdom’s sands. “This is going…

Syrian economy in tatters after 5 years of war

In his tiny office, tucked behind stacks of olive oil soap and bags of pistachios stored in an arcaded courtyard in the main market of Damascus, Abu Abdallah laments the difficulties of doing business in war-torn Syria. The food wholesaler,…

IMF board approves $12bn Egypt bailout

The International Monetary Fund’s executive board has approved a $12bn bailout of Egypt to buttress the government’s finances and help the Arab world’s most populous country restore some vim to its economy. Egypt’s economy has struggled since the Arab Spring…